I wrote this blog post last month.  After seeing the evidence that has come out on PocketFives however with the excel file, I tend to believe that there were some shenanigans going on.  Here is my latest take on it and what the implications are for poker affiliates.

So today I am sitting in my office doing what any other poker affiliate does on a Monday, surfing porn and checking fantasy football stats adding content, responding to emails, and working on websites. I saw the post on PAW over the weekend about the wild accusations regarding Absolute Poker being rigged but didn’t think much of it. Since I have been in the online poker industry, the “online poker is rigged” argument has always been around. Why can’t we just go back to 300 baud and BBS systems. Damn, that was when life was simple.

The condensed version of this story is that somehow there is a “Super User” account and that Mark Seif has something to do with it. The story then goes on to say that a few players with this super account status at AP can see the entire tables hole cards. Some people posted poker tracker stats and hand histories at 2+2 in an effort to substantiate the claims.

As this began to spread across the various poker forums, it also spilled into the affiliate forums at PAW. Some of the affiliates already unhappy with AP’s affiliate department chimed in with their thoughts on the rumor. Then a few other affiliates posted about their special “Rain Man” talents, and being able to predict outcomes. It was an intriguing post to say the least.

Later in the day I got an email from Danielle stating she thought portions of the post were slanderous towards Absolute Poker. At first I was kind of pissed and wanted to take the stance that PAW is an open forum for affiliates to discuss any issues facing the industry. Likewise I didn’t want to censor anything or delete the post because that is not what I believe in.

But then I had a real hard think on the topic. I have been hearing about online poker sites being rigged since I started in this industry. After all, it’s a natural thought process in an industry where over 80% of the customers are losers. Furthermore I value the relationship between PokerNews, PAW, and my own personal accounts with AP. I also think the idea of a few users having super account statuses is a bit far fetched. I am not saying it couldn’t happen. But if you understand how encryption, RNG, and especially packets work between the poker server and the user, then you know this would be a hell of a hack and an unprecedented security breach in the history of online poker.

After further review, I decided the best thing to do was to leave all the bullshit, rumors, and guessing to the poker players over at the poker forums. Although I did tell AP that I wasn’t going to lie about why I deleted the post and that they would to have to make a follow up post when the “WTF happened to the AP posts” started popping up.

What amazes me is that someone posts a small sample size of hand histories and makes a few outlandish allegations on 2+2 and the whole industry is in an uproar. Yet the collusion and cheating that undoubtedly takes place on every site in the higher limits is seldom talked about. I would think the higher limit players would be more concerned about this each day than the theory of a Super User account at AP.

Regardless, any time there is an enormous amount of money involved, people will always look for an edge or a way to cheat. It happens everywhere from casinos in Las Angeles to Wall St. in New York. Now throw into the mix a game of deception like poker where several thousands of dollars are involved. To take it even further, add in the fact that online poker is for the most part anonymous where people can play from proxies and appear to be anyone or anywhere in the world. Not to mention the fact that now days people are playing with 7 figures in their online poker accounts. (Times have really changed since the days of Paradise and Planet Poker)

For the record I am not saying anyone specifically cheats or that it is rampant in the industry or on any specific site. But if you think for a second that these big games don’t have collusion and cheating taking place from time to time, you’re very naive. It’s as simple as a group of pro’s playing shorthanded at the same table, but with a shared roll. Put your thinking caps on and you can probably imagine several scenarios on how collusion takes place at online poker sites. I won’t say more on that as I am not trying to start a whole new controversy. I am thankful I found my niche in the high stakes poker affiliate arena versus at the tables. Although fuck……I’ve probably been cheated out of a few hundred players here and there throughout the years too.

The point I am trying to make is that this type of cheating or collusion in online poker is never really discussed or blown up like the current conspiracy theory has been. And the odds of high limit collusion taking place every day at online poker sites is much more plausible than a poker room like Absolute Poker having “Super User” accounts. Maybe there was just simple chip dumping going on, or perhaps the player was on tilt or drunk and got very lucky during that small sample size. I would think these two scenarios would be way more believable. Something was probably up, no doubt, but the current theory of seeing hole cards is unlikely, but that’s just my opinion.

Anyhow I am not defending Absolute Poker or saying that the allegations are not possible, because they very well may be. All I am saying is that until I see more concrete evidence that certain players can see everyone’s hole cards, I am not sure what to think on it.

WARNING – Only Read On If You Are Experiencing Severe Boredom.

The Carnival Ring Toss Is Rigged — I Can Beat It Though

Now onto real cheating and how to beat a truly rigged game. I present you with the ring toss at the carnival. This is the most rigged game in the world, have you ever seen the necks of those bottles. When you throw one of those red plastic rings it will always bounce off. Even if you go directly on top of the bottle, it will still bounce off. It’s simple geometry.

So here’s the trick. And I will preface this by saying the Carnie’s know this trick so do it when they are busy and not watching. Stack two rings together, one on top of each other. Then throw them straight up together. They need to stay together through flight and on the way down…….When the rings hit the bottle together, the top one will bounce off but will force the bottom one to stay on the bottle. It works like a charm every time. You’re kids will love you when you win them that monster 5 foot stuffed animal.

Disclaimer: I have been banned at many carnivals and I am considered throughout the Midwest as a “Super Carnival User”.

You have entirely failed to address any of the issues involved, and have not responded to any of the quite well-written and logical suggestions that certain player(s) at Absolute Poker are able to see the cards of other players.

The most obvious problem is that the alleged cheaters never – not once, not twice, but never – called on the river (except to be all in, obviously) before being revealed as a cheater.

This is the first time that any alleged cheater has had this key issue – and this entirely consistent with being able to see your opponents’ cards. After all, if you know what your opponent has, you would either raise (because you have a better hand or to make the opponent fold) or fold (because you have a worse hand and can’t make the opponent fold).

This is just one key fact that indicates that the alleged accounts are cheating.

“What amazes me is that someone posts a small sample size of hand histories and makes a few outlandish allegations on 2+2 and the whole industry is in an uproar.”
Because these histories and allegations are coherent and logically only explainable by someone who is cheating.

“Yet the collusion and cheating that undoubtedly takes place on every site in the higher limits is seldom talked about.”
….because there is no evidence that this happens. If you have evidence, you should provide it.

“All I am saying is that until I see more concrete evidence that certain players can see everyone’s hole cards, I am calling bullshit on this specific theory.”
Then you’re mindlessly putting your head in the sand and ignoring the obvious and most reasonable explanation for this turn of events.

EVERYTHING the player(s) have done is consistent with cheating. There is no credible reason to doubt it.

I wrote:

“Anyhow I am not defending Absolute Poker or saying that the allegations are not possible, because they very well may be.”

“What amazes me is that someone posts a small sample size of hand histories and makes a few outlandish allegations on 2+2 and the whole industry is in an uproar. Yet the collusion and cheating that undoubtedly takes place on every site in the higher limits is seldom talked about. I would think the higher limit players would be more concerned about this each day than the theory of a Super User account at AP.”

That’s what I was thinking. All the collussion that goes on and people are worried about hole card cheating which is obviously possible but the chances of it happening to you, slim to none. Chances of coming across someone with hole card reading is highly unlikely yet I’m sure everyone who’s played online poker has been colluded at least once.

Did you even look at the evidence? It is beyond dispute.

The only question is: Were ownership/Mark Seif involved?

There is zero doubt the cheating happened. Please quit pretending water isn’t wet.

“AbsolutePoker.com Is Not Rigged”

Umm yest it is. Quit defending these clowns.

I don’t think Jeremy is saying that there is no chance this could be possible. I think he is pointing out that cheating at online poker happens all the time with collusion and no one seems to be concerned about that.

It would be nice if all the players using poker tracker could put their stats together to see more long term stats on these guys at AP. That’s the biggest hole in this entire thing, the sample size of hands.

Even if this did happen, it is such an isolated incident compared to the enormous amount of cheating that goes on daily at the online poker rooms.

So even if it was found that these guys did have access to super user accounts courtesy of Mark Seif, wtf is AP supposed to do about it. By now there surely have a handle on the situation and have their security team all over it.

Like it’s breaking news that cheating takes place in online poker. There has always been cheats in the game bith online and in the casinos.

Justifying this cheating (or playing down the out roar) because collusion is known to take place in online poker is ridiculous. One crime is not acceptable because other similar crimes occur.

The out cry is so great in this case because it involves a potentially much bigger issue. This is the biggest hack / crack / bug since the Planet Poker RNG was cracked in 1999.

There is no doubt cheating took place and ABS security has now confirmed that. The only questions are how bad is / was it? And why did ABS not catch this sooner?

This cannot get enough publicity.

Should collusion get more publicity? Probably, but that’s entirely unrelated.

Royal wrote:

“There is no doubt cheating took place and ABS security has now confirmed that.”

Can you post the link or story where ABS security confirmed this. Thanks

JE

How come this story hasn’t been posted on all of the big poker portals like cardplayer, pokerlistings, pokernews, or gambling911?

That’s an easy answer. AP has all the webmasters who make money off their affiliate program by the balls.

But like a couple comments above,if it did happen there is nothing AP can do about it now.

They are probably hoping it just blows over. Nice post though.

I like the part about the ring toss. Since I never play on AP I am not too worried about it. However I would like to see the proof that this is going down? Who brought the story up anyways? FullTilt?

It was published on poker news (UK) for some time yesterday morning. It was taken down by the afternoon. Barry Carter wrote the story.

You’re an idiot.

Nole91 wrote:

“You’re an idiot.”

After the handyman work I attempted to do today, I think it’s fair to say that my wife would agree with you. Thanks.

Jeremy

[...] AbsolutePoker.com Is Not Rigged, But The Carnival Ring Toss Is….. [...]

Maybe I should read all the evidence first, but…isn’t collusion an equally viable explanation for why somebody would never call when they were beaten?

Isn’t the whole point of collusion to get the sucker’s money into the pot, not yours?

So, you will either raise when you know you are “boss” or fold when you know you are beaten.

Regardless, I do not know how anyone can think this kind of crap is good for the Poker Affiliate industry.

Jeremy stated:
“All I am saying is that until I see more concrete evidence that certain players can see everyone’s hole cards, I am not sure what to think on it.
”

You basically precluded the chance of discussing “more concrete evidence” by killing the thread.

I am intrigued by those who claim that this is probably just an “isolated incident”….

LOL….please explain how the *uck you would ever know, unless people are mobilized to start being more vigilant about looking for patterns…

People do not get mobilized until somebody blows the whistle, which prompts other people to start noticing things and reporting them….and then the truth starts to emerge – one way or the other.

Jeremy, I really find your explanations about your motivations and perceptions of the case somewhat contradictory…and confusingly ambivalent.

If I understand you correctly, you are telling people that if they want the unvarnished truth they should go look at another forum, 2 + 2 .

First, 2 + 2 is not exactly a paragon of free speech. There have been cases of censorship there, as well.

Secondly, I thought PAW was supposed to be place where an affiliate could go to get everything they need to know about being an affiliate.

This is certainly germane to the issue of whether or not one can promote online poker to people and keep a straight face.

If misleading things were being posted at PAW, then the remedy was to provide counterbalancing truth and scrutiny of the arguments being made.

The proper remedy was not to censor and leave it up to some othe source to provide fair and unbiased discussion.

In the original thread people were beginning to discuss their sixth sense powers. Likewise some affiliates were merely bitching in general about the AP/UP affiliate program versus discussing the issue at hand.

Erasing the post had nothing to do with censorship. I am not saying that I shouldn’t of just left the post up. Maybe I should have, but it’s all hindsight now.

At the time I decided to just start a new thread and invite a discussion on the topic in a thread with the official AP statement.

I’ve never been afraid to admit a mistake. Maybe my thoughts on the whole ordeal are off, maybe I should have left the original post. All I know is that I am not going to lose sleep over it.

And for the record, I don’t think this is good for the industry at all.

As a computer programmer I simply do not think it is possible for a super-user account to exist. It would not be a small “add-on” to the software and would need to be coded as part of the systems backend (in order to see what hole cards the other player had). The bottom layers of online poker backends generally all come from the same source and have been tested & coded by dozens of highly paid, well respected programmers. The US government has more leaks than a Canadian submarine and you’re telling me AbsolutePoker was able to keep a dozen plus people quite for years about such a big secret???

[...] AbsolutePoker.com Is Not Rigged, But The Carnival Ring Toss Is….. [...]

It has been suggested that the hand history that shows potripper making incredible calls against crazymarco is conclusive proof that potripper can see crazymarco’s hole cards. If this is true, then the very same logic can be used to derive the following conclusion: Crazymarco can see potrippers’s hole cards.
Thus, we arrive at the tautology: Both players can see eachothers hole cards.

In other words, if potrippers actions are so utterly stupid that they must be deemed the actions of a hole-card cheat, then the same can be said for crazymarco. If it is so unbelievable that someone would call a large bet with ten-high and two kings on the board, then i suggest it is also unbelievable that someone would make increasingly large bets culminating in his full stack with nine-high and two kings on the board

Having extensive experience in both live and online poker, my ‘opinion’ is to have to agree that they actualy could see the hole cards.
Now, lets get down to the real cheats in online poker, a group of players including myself, have been experimenting with the ‘the new account theory’, meaning that the online sites allow new players to have a little more favorable results in the first 7 to 10 days of playing. We all cannot seem to win on our regular accounts, so we open accounts at relatives and friends houses using their computers, names and bank info etc., Bottom line, the new accounts have amazing results at first, we all make a ton of money, and when that account stops producing, we simply move on to another new one.
My concern and point I am trying to make here is, if the online sites can indeed ‘tweak the software’ (I hate the rigged word) in order to favor new accounts in order to ‘hook’ a new customer, what else can they do with the software? A good player who loses most of time while playing his ‘A’ game, yet wins hundreds of thousands of dollars playing part time on friends and families new accounts, after doing this repeatedly over a long period of time, also falls into line with the mpossible odds that the Absolute super-user accounts are being questioned over.
Yes cheating online exists, but the biggest cheats online, are the poker sites themselves.

Well now there is evidence to investigate, with the observer’s IP address in the room, who happened to be one of the first few hundred AP accounts created.

Strange coincidence, don’t you think? Oh and the person is based in Costa Rica.

Wow this shit is about to get really interesting I guess.

I actually made a new blog post on the implications to poker affiliates regarding the Absolute Poker Super User Account

[...] defective yeti: Funny Strange Meets Funny Ha-Ha wrote an interesting post today on AbsolutePoker.com Is Not Rigged, But The Carnival Ring Toss Isâ?¦..Here’s a quick excerpt…room like Absolute Poker having “Super User” accounts. Maybe there was just simple chip … It’s simple geometry. So here’s the trick. [...]